Sunday, September 2, 2007

August by the numbers

i see on-line players measure their win rates in poker tracker big blinds / 100 hands ("ptbb/100"). poker tracker (a software package that helps track everything about playing poker on line) apparently calculates a win (or loss) rate using limit holdem "big bets" per 100 hands. in limit holdem, the big bet (on the turn and river) are twice the big blind. so the units equte to 2 big blinds / 100 hands.

i am tracking dollars won and hours played, but was able to do a couple of quick calculations to gauge my results.

i played 106.5 hours of live games. if we guestimate about 35 hands / hour dealt in a typical live game (that would be 17-18 hands per dealer "down"), that makes a total of about 3727 hands played. assuming a big blind of $3 (i played 1 session in a 3/5 NL game and 1 session of 2/2), my win rate works out to +63.5 big blinds / 100 hands = +32 poker tracker big bets / 100.

or in non on-line terms 21 big blinds / hour.

i know 3700 hands is not a big enough sample size to really conclude anything, but i'm happy where i'm headed.

[any of you live cash game players: how many hands do you think are dealt in an hour on average?]

Saturday, September 1, 2007

Aug wrap-up session

what a month! i had 1 losing session in 11 and was up almost 25 buyins. i credit a lot of that to being on the right side of variance (running pretty hot), but i can also say i played well.

often sessions come down to 4-5 big hands that make the difference. following a session, on-line players have the luxury of reviewing their hand histories including every detail about their opponents etc. while i don't have all the hard data sitting in front of me on a screen, i seem to have pretty good recall for my big hands in a session. writing them down here in this blog also helps me digest my play and whether i thought i played a hand correctly. its been a good learning experience so far. thanks for coming along on my adventures.....

so i played in a home game last night for about 5 hours and ended down 1/3 of a buyin. i was running pretty cold and didn't really get too many hands. maybe it's a good thing though as one of the players stacked off twice with KK vs. AA and AK into AA on a K high board. and that was at a 7 handed table. pretty much coolers. the host (damn you CG!) mopped up the field as has typically been the case. he made a nice laydown when i flopped the nuts with the ace high flush and he held top pair / top kicker.

so after busting up another player with a turned straight vs. 2 pair, the game broke and i decided to head up to oceans 11 for short session. i got there about 1am and knew that i would only be playing til 4am or so when my brother was getting into town. [they drove at night due to the oppressing heat of late and a broken a/c in the car].

about 10 minutes in, i doubled up when i flopped 2 pair with KQ vs. AA. he let me get there cheap too. i made a standard raise in middle position and he just called on the button. i flopped 2 pair and bet out and he raised. i three bet him and he tanked and then pushed all in. i couldn't shove my "All In" pumpkin quickly enough. he bricked out and i took a nice pot.

i had already put in for a table change as there was some juicy action on the table next to me. a very loose aggressive player had a huge stack and there was another donkariffic guy who i've played with before (i wrote about a hand in which he told me he folded a flopped straight vs. my set on an unpaired board cuz he thought i might have a full house! i did end up with a boat, but whatever...) anyway, the table was looooooose and bluffy. i didn't need to wait that long to get paid off.

i raised a couple of limpers on the button with pocket 5s. loosey goosey called me in the big blind. the flop was ace high and he checked to me. him calling a preflop raise meant absolutely nothing. he has even told me before that hand selection is one of his least important criteria. once he is in a pot, he will call raises with any two. anyway, so he checked to me on the flop and i bet. he called. now i'm done with the hand. he probably has a hand like A-10 or A-9, and i'm drawing pretty slim. i was going to fold to a turn bet, until the jakepot card hit: a 5! he led out pretty strong. i have seen him push his hands when he thinks he has the best of it and make some pretty thin value bets on the river. i thought about raising the turn, but i knew he would lead again on the river if i looked weak. i smooth called his turn bet. river Q. he fires out a big bet of more than half of my remaining stack. i thought there was a good chance he made two pair. i pushed and he insta-called me with AQ, top 2 pair.

soon after i called after several limpers with K-9 and flopped top 2 pair. a guy who i wasn't familiar with check-raised me on the flop. i might lose him if i re-raise, so i just called. he led strong on the turn and i just called. the river brought another brick and unless he had check-raised with a straight draw, i had him. he made a big bet on the river, which i just called (instead of raising without the nuts). i knew i had him beat, but i "called" him so he had to show down his hand first. he, of course, could muck it and save himself the embarrassment but he chose to show a bluff with 3rd pair. when someone 3 barrel bluffs, i want to see what they have when i call.

anyway, it was a great session (+2.5 buyins including the small loss in the home game) to wrap up the month. later on, i'll post what my final BB/hour winrate was for the month. looking forward to the next syndicate event on monday. it's time to start making some noise.

Thursday, August 30, 2007

another "wow" at the poker tables

i just remembered a story from the other night. it happened early on in my session. a guy who had recently sat down and bought in for only $100 (a full buy-in at 2/3 NL is $300), had played maybe 1 hand and hadn't gotten very involved yet.

there was a limper then an early position standard raise and he went all in over the top in late position. the total bet was $88, which was $73 more than the initial EP's raise. everyone folded back to the initial raiser. but apparently the late position all-in guy forgot the initial raiser was still in the hand and tabled his cards face up: pocket JJ. the raiser saw this and thought for a second, and said, "i'll give you action. i call." we expected to see AQ or AK. he tabled his hand face up as well and we couldn't believe what we saw. KJ offsuit.

merry christmas guy. the pocket Jacks held up for the biggest gift of $88 i have ever seen.
[well, the hand from bay 101 where a guy tried to 4 bet the flop with 1 pair of AA was a nice little bonus for me, but at least he had an overpair.]

Wednesday, August 29, 2007

made the cut

i got a total of about 5 seconds of air time on espn's broadcast of the main event last night! i was shown sitting next to robert varkonyi during the hand i anticipated them showing. pretty cool, as i don't think i've ever been on national television before. i was shown three different times in the episode including congratulating rob on doubling through chris ferguson.

near the end of the episode, they did a crowd scan and showed my table again. you could only see the back of my head, but my brother was clearly visible on the rail behind me. quite possibly his TV debut as well.

autographed photos now available. email me for a cost quote.

[hahaha!]

it was a pretty good run

finally a losing session. well, not really too bad. down just 1/2 a buy in. i can't remember how many + sessions in a row that was -- somewhere near 10. got cold decked for a long stretch in the middle of the session. i flopped 2 pair a few times and bet it, only to fold to a big river bet when i knew i was beat. granted i made some good laydowns, but still it was frustrating to hit some nice hands and have to lay them down when my opponent out drew with 3, 4, and 8 outers. one guy in particular had my number all night. he continued to make calls when he was behind and outdraw. after a while i was hoping for his action just so i could possibly beat him in a hand. it took a while but finally, he flopped 2 pair when i flopped a set. we got it all in on the turn and he didn't hit his 4 outer.

about to head home about $20 up on the session after making a big comeback from down 2 buy ins, i asked the chip runner how long until she scanned the ID cards again (you can accumulate hours for casino benefits). she said, "2 minutes." on the very next hand, i called a small raise in the blinds with AsJs. the flop was J high, and with 5 players in the hand, i led out. i got raised from middle position and everyone else folded. nothing out there scared me and i thought the guy might be on QJ or KJ. i could have easily gotten away from 1 pair here, and out of position, i should have dumped it without a second thought. what did i do instead? i re-raised. he immediately shoved for $400 more. obviously i dumped it and he said he had bottom set of 4s. the timing (and quality) of my play was comical !! i had literally been racked up and ready to go, instead choosing to wait for one last scan. nice $260 choice that was.

about 5 minutes later i called a standard raise on the button with J-9. 3 of us saw the flop. i called a continuation bet from early position with an open end straight draw. i made the nuts on the turn with an 8-10-4-7 board. he lead out again. now i was pretty sure he was on an overpair or possibly top pair / top kicker. i thought if i smooth called, he would probably check/fold or check/call on the river, so i thought the best chance to get his chips in the middle was to raise the turn. he had only about the amount of the pot behind, so i raised enough to make him fully commit to the pot, but not all in. well, he tanked and then pushed all in. i insta-called. busting that guy caused the table to break, so i ended down just a bit on the session.

at least i learned a pretty valuable something -- i made possibly one of the worst raises i've ever made. oh, and another thing.....why am i calling raises with AJ in the blinds anyway?

Monday, August 27, 2007

it had to happen sooner or later

i didn't play at viejas, but i did sit in a live game at oceans 11 on saturday.

ran hot at the beginning of my session and was up $400 pretty quickly. normally i wouldn't overvalue 1 pair of 9s, but against this particular player who was in about 80% of the pots and raised / called raises almost every hand, i gambled with him a bit with 1 pair. i flopped top pair of 9s from the small blind and led out. he mini-raised and i re-raised, he pushed all in and i decided to call with 7-9. i put him on a flush draw and i was right. he had Kh8h for a flush draw with 1 over, so i was (slightly) favored. he bricked out and i took down a nice pot with 1 measly pair. i also turned the ace high flush vs. JJ and got paid off with his whole stack.

moved to a new table and quickly got hammered with my favorite hand, AQ. flopped an ace, and made a near pot size bet and was called in 1 spot. the turn was a pretty bad 5d, that put 3 diamonds on board and created a straight possibility. he check raised me all in, but with my Q high diamond draw and top pair, i couldn't get away for the price. i missed and he showed A-2 offsuit for the wheel. nice preflop and flop call. i should have shown more discipline and checked behind on the turn. wouldn't have had to play for stacks with 1 pair.

hung around not playing too many pots. it was a fun table with a decent amount of money on the table, so it was worth sticking it out for a bit. one player had been raising a lot, so i re-raised on the button with 66 to isolate. he called. flop was 3 diamonds including the 6d, so i felt pretty good about my hand. he checked and i bet 2/3 pot and he called. the turn paired the board with a 9. now i'm a lock. he check raised me and i pushed all in hoping for his call, which he did. the board is now : Ad9d6d-9h. unless he holds AA or 99, i'm a huge favorite. he flips over AsKd for top pair / top kicker and the nut flush draw. well, his flush was obviously dead vs. my boat and his top pair was only good if he could fill it up. 4 outs: Two Aces and two 9s.

the river, you ask? the 9 of spades. nice counterfit card. i would have rather lost to an Ace. just brutal. a big nasty bad beat was bound to happen sooner or later and i finally took it in the shorts on that hand. i've taken 2 outers on the river with an overpair many times, but when you have a full house and play it perfectly, it seems to hurt that much more.

i took a little breather, but still felt like i was playing well. after losing those two big pots, i was down for the evening. i persevered and made it back to + $50, which seemed pretty pathetic, but hey + is better than -. i felt like i made good decisions and that's the most i can ask for.

[EDIT:] oh yeah -- i was 12 hours into the session before i got AA. i made a standard raise from middle position and everyone folded. i won $5.

the 4 BB/hour i won brings me down to 23.5 BB/hour since Aug 1.

i got home, got a short nap in and heather and i headed to del mar racetrack for a day watching the races. a friend's girlfriend's family has some nice table service seats that were really cool. we could watch the races in comfort (including shade) and with drinks of choice. while they enjoyed frosty adult beverages, i stuck to red bull to stave off the sleep monster. we won our first bet and then lost all the rest, but it was a really nice afternoon with the horsies. also funny to see my normally cynical friend be so cutesy with his belle.

Friday, August 24, 2007

8/23 - O11

My first table last night was pretty dead with several short stacks and not much money on the table, so I requested a table change. Within the first 10 minutes of changing tables, I flopped quad 6s holding a pocket pair and actually got a little bit of money from a guy with top pair. I kept getting AK on the button and raising, and people obviously stopped believing me that I had a real hand. In one pot a EP limper re-raised to $60 after I raised to $17 on the button, and 3 of us saw the flop. I flopped the nut flush draw with AhKh, a straight draw, and 2 overs, and the guy in early position went all in for a little more than 1/3 of the pot. I called and the other guy folded from the blinds. Don’t ask me how, but I missed all 84 of my outs, and his pocket 5s held up.

Right about that time, we hear some rumblings and then some loud cheering from the table that I was initially sitting at. Brutal, they hit a bad beat jackpot! A guy I know (tyler – I’ll get you!) had just shown up and sat in the seat that I had been sitting in at that table and they hit a jackpot 10 minutes later. This happens about 20-30 minutes after a jackpot was hit on a 4-8 limit holdem table right next door.

After another table break I ended up back at the jackpot table. The 40% share guy ($8600) was keeping his rack of white chips on the table as a display of dominance, consistent with his jackassical ways. I’ve played with him before and he is a pretty bad poker player and has actually been kicked out of oceans 11 for being obnoxious. Anyway, he doubled people up twice soon after I sat down, with terrible river raises holding nowhere near the nuts. He apparently still hadn’t learned his lesson when I raised with AJ and got 5 callers, including him. I was in fairly early position, so I checked the Ace on the flop and Jackpot bet. I was the only caller and he says, “There it is!” we both checked the turn, and I felt pretty good about my AJ on the river, nothing scary out there, so I bet for value and he min-raised me. Against a good player I would probably muck here, but I called and he showed down A8, 1 pair.

The table started breaking up and we were down to 4 handed, which obviously is a much looser style game. I turned top 2 pair with 6-4 and made a nice bet when checked to, but was raised all in. I dumped top 2 pair and he showed 5-2 for straight. I later check raised when I turned two pair with 10-7 and the guy came over the top of me. I had bottom and 2nd pair and made a good laydown in a 4 handed game. he showed pocket 7s for a flopped set. I got a bunch back when I flopped two pair with K-10 and turned a K to fill up. The guy paid me off the whole way with what I assume was AQ, top pair, good kicker.

At this point I was right about even, being in the game for 2 buy ins. Our table broke and I had a choice to sit in a full game, so I did. On the very first hand I pick up pocket KK. In 10 hours, the biggest pocket pair I had up to that point was JJ. I raise in early position to $17, which was a pretty standard raise for the game, but I wasn’t sure how this table was playing. Hoped I didn’t scare everybody off. 1 caller and the small blind re-raises to $50, and the big blind cold calls 3 bets! I’ve got almost $300 more behind, so I’m faced with get the money in now and probably take down the pot, or see if I fade that damn Ace on the flop and then get the money in. there’s $117 in the pot of other people’s money, I won’t sweat it if I just take it down now. I shove. The small blind tanks for a bit and then calls……and then the big blind calls too! Obviously the small blind doesn’t have AA, but I’m hoping they both have Qs, Js, and/or 10s. well a Q and a J flop, which I pretty much hate. I river a K, and win a huge pot with top set vs. AK’s top pair. I was good the whole time though. The big blind didn’t show, but he had to have 9s or 10s. it turns out i had 56% equity in the hand vs. AK and 10s. but i got 3:1 on my money so i'm happy with the calls.

So after clawing my way back from down a buy in, I cash out up close to 2 buy ins. Nice way to wrap up. That session hurt my august bb/hour winrate though……down to +27 bb/hour.